America First, Proliferation Second: Trump's Saudi Nuclear Gambit Rewrites US Middle East Policy

The Trump administration's recent nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia represents a profound and contentious pivot in US foreign policy, jettisoning a decades-long American stance toward a key Middle East ally. Historically, US presidents conditioned the provision of American nuclear technology for civilian energy programmes on Saudi Arabia normalising relations with Israel. The reported contents of this new deal, however, suggest President Donald Trump granted Saudi Arabia its wishes without securing these established concessions for Israel, inviting sharp criticism over concerns it could ignite a regional nuclear arms race.

Trump’s assertion on social media that the nuclear pact was contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords – his first-term initiative normalising relations between Israel and several Gulf states – remains unclear in its veracity. The deal's text has not been released, leaving open questions as to whether this condition was explicitly stipulated, or if Saudi Arabia had even agreed to it. This ambiguity underlines a broader, deliberate departure from the traditional American approach to the Middle East, which historically centred on Israel and the pursuit of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

This transactional shift aligns with Trump's second-term focus on strengthening America's economic influence to compete with rivals such as China. Analysts, including Yusuf Can, a Middle East expert at Amena Strategies, interpret the nuclear pact as a clear signal: the US aims to retain regional allies, even if it means alienating Israel. Can noted, "Countries in the Middle East want to develop their nuclear infrastructure and they're going to do it even if the US is not involved. Washington at this point is recognising that," adding, "the US is basically saying you don't have to work with China. You can work with us."

Beyond diplomatic optics, the practical implications are significant. The pact reportedly lacks strict enforcement measures designed to prevent Saudi Arabia from developing a military nuclear programme in the future. This omission starkly differentiates it from the 2009 nuclear cooperation agreement forged between the US and the United Arab Emirates. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) himself stated in 2018 that if Iran were to develop nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia should be afforded the same capability. This reported lack of robust safeguards, juxtaposed with MBS’s prior declarations, intensifies concerns about regional stability in an already volatile Middle East where the US is actively engaged in conflict with Iran.

For Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince MBS, this agreement marks a significant victory. He has consistently sought a nuclear accord with the US for years as part of a broader strategy to strengthen ties with the West. The deal, therefore, not only secures access to coveted technology but also validates a transactional approach to international relations that prioritises national interest and great power competition over traditional alliances and non-proliferation norms. The long-term ramifications of such a fundamental reordering of priorities in a region so prone to escalation remain to be seen, but the immediate signal is undeniable: an 'America First' doctrine now explicitly accommodates nuclear ambiguity for strategic leverage.